Global Conflict and Its Ripple Effects on South Africa’s Food Security

From Middle East Tensions to Worldwide Economic Strain

The recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has transcended regional boundaries, evolving into a global crisis that has unsettled markets and societies worldwide. The coordinated military actions by the US and Israel targeting Iran have intensified global apprehension, triggering widespread uncertainty about economic stability and resource availability.

Fuel Price Surges: More Than a Temporary Disruption

What initially appeared as a short-term fuel price fluctuation has now revealed itself as a profound and systemic challenge. The ongoing global energy crisis is disrupting supply chains critical to daily life, with rising oil prices inflating the costs of food production and distribution worldwide.

The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

At the heart of this disruption lies the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor through which approximately 20% to 30% of the world’s fertiliser exports-including essential nutrients for crop cultivation-are transported. Any constriction or threat to this passageway sends shockwaves through global agricultural markets, tightening supplies and driving prices upward.

Fertiliser Supply Shocks and South Africa’s Vulnerability

Since March 2026, the conflict’s impact on the Strait has already caused a noticeable surge in fertiliser prices and scarcity on a global scale. South Africa, which depends on imports for nearly 80% of its fertiliser-primarily sourced from the Middle East-faces a tangible risk. Interruptions in supply chains, whether due to geopolitical tensions, shipping delays, or price instability, directly increase input costs for local farmers, exposing the agricultural sector to significant shocks.

Compounding Pressures: Fuel Costs and Food Prices

Simultaneously, escalating fuel prices amplify expenses across the entire food production and distribution network-from farming operations to processing facilities and transportation logistics. This dual pressure almost inevitably leads to higher consumer prices, threatening food affordability and availability nationwide.

Elevated prices are almost certain to have a downstream effect on food availability and affordability.

Timing and Consequences for the 2026-27 Agricultural Season

The timing of these price hikes is particularly critical, coinciding with key planting decisions for staple crops such as wheat, barley, and various vegetables. Farmers are now navigating heightened uncertainty and increased costs, which will likely translate into reduced crop yields or higher market prices, further straining food security.

South Africa’s Broader Import Dependencies

Beyond fertilisers, South Africa relies heavily on imports for essential food items and agricultural inputs, including wheat, cereals, edible oils, coffee, tea, spices, certain meats, and agrochemicals. This extensive dependence exposes consumers to volatile international markets, making the country vulnerable to price shocks and supply interruptions.

Structural Challenges Within South Africa’s Food System

However, the problem extends beyond external supply disruptions. The interplay between global pressures and South Africa’s internal market dynamics-characterised by a high concentration of power among a few dominant firms in fertiliser importation, food processing, and retail-exacerbates the situation. In such a concentrated system, cost increases rapidly cascade through the value chain, often with limited transparency and minimal cushioning for farmers and consumers alike.

The Role of Market Concentration in Price Transmission

Farmers bear the brunt of rising input costs, while consumers face escalating food prices. Meanwhile, the concentrated market power held by a handful of corporations influences how these cost pressures are distributed, often to the detriment of smaller producers and households.

Significance of the South African Human Rights Commission’s Food Systems Inquiry

In this context, the ongoing national inquiry into South Africa’s food systems, spearheaded by the South African Human Rights Commission, is especially timely. As the investigation enters its second phase, it will scrutinise the roles of input suppliers, farmers, processors, lobby groups, and retailers amid this heightened global urgency.

Critical Questions for South Africa’s Food Security

The inquiry raises pivotal questions: How vulnerable is South Africa to external shocks given its reliance on imported agricultural inputs? How does the concentration of market power in fertiliser supply, food processing, and retail sectors influence the absorption or passing on of these shocks? And fundamentally, who ultimately shoulders the financial burden when global crises unfold-corporations, farmers, or consumers?

Structural Vulnerabilities Demand Strategic Solutions

While the inquiry’s conclusions remain forthcoming, one reality stands out: if the costs consistently fall on consumers and small-scale producers, the issue transcends external factors and points to deep-rooted structural weaknesses. The simultaneous fuel price surge and global fertiliser shortage highlight the fragility of a food system that is both import-dependent and dominated by a few powerful players.

Pathways Toward Resilience: Diversification and Food Sovereignty

This situation underscores the urgent need to explore diversification of supply sources, bolster local production capacities, implement effective market regulations, and advance food sovereignty. Food security cannot be isolated from energy policies, international trade dynamics, or market structures. The price of staple foods like bread, maize meal, and vegetables is influenced as much by global oil routes as by local environmental conditions and, crucially, by the distribution of power within the food value chain.

Conclusion: Addressing the Hidden Costs in South Africa’s Food Chain

What begins at the fuel pump reverberates through farms, factories, and transport networks before reaching every household. Without confronting the entrenched concentration and systemic vulnerabilities in South Africa’s food system, the financial and social costs of global crises will continue to escalate, threatening the nation’s food security and economic stability.

• Ntuli is a commissioner of the South African Human Rights Commission