Global Conflict and Its Ripple Effects on South Africa’s Food Security

From Middle East Tensions to Worldwide Economic Anxiety

The recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has transcended regional boundaries, evolving into a global crisis that has unsettled markets and societies worldwide. The coordinated military actions by the US and Israel targeting Iran have intensified global apprehension, underscoring the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and economic stability.

Persistent Fuel Price Surges: Beyond a Temporary Disruption

Contrary to initial expectations of a short-lived disturbance, the ongoing global fuel crisis reveals deeper systemic vulnerabilities. Rising oil prices are exerting pressure on the entire supply chain, inflating the costs of food production and distribution. This trend threatens to destabilize food affordability and availability on a global scale.

The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

At the heart of this crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% to 30% of the world’s fertiliser exports transit, alongside significant volumes of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Any disruption in this narrow passageway sends shockwaves through global agriculture, as essential nutrients for crop cultivation become scarce and more expensive.

Fertiliser Price Inflation and Supply Constraints Since Early 2026

Since March 2026, the conflict’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz has already triggered a surge in global fertiliser prices and tightened supply chains. This escalation poses a direct threat to agricultural productivity worldwide, with ripple effects felt acutely in countries heavily dependent on imports.

South Africa’s Vulnerability: A Heavy Reliance on Imported Fertilisers

South Africa’s agricultural sector is particularly exposed, importing nearly 80% of its fertilisers from the Middle East. Interruptions in supply-whether due to geopolitical conflict, shipping bottlenecks, or price volatility-translate into increased input costs for local farmers. Coupled with rising fuel prices, these factors elevate the expenses associated with production, processing, and transportation throughout the food supply chain.

Consequences for Food Prices and Consumer Access

The cumulative effect of escalating fuel and fertiliser costs is a predictable rise in food prices. This inflationary pressure threatens to reduce food accessibility and affordability for South African consumers, especially as farmers grapple with higher production expenses during critical planting seasons for crops like wheat, barley, and various vegetables for 2026-27.

Elevated prices are almost certain to have a downstream effect on food availability and affordability.

Broader Import Dependencies Amplify National Risk

Beyond fertilisers, South Africa depends heavily on imports for essential staples and agricultural inputs, including wheat, cereals, edible oils, oilseeds, coffee, tea, spices, certain meats, and agrochemicals. This extensive reliance exposes the country to global market fluctuations, making consumers vulnerable to international price shocks.

Internal Market Concentration: A Compounding Factor

However, the challenge extends beyond external supply disruptions. South Africa’s food system is characterized by significant concentration, with a handful of companies dominating fertiliser imports, food processing, and retail sectors. This market concentration accelerates the transmission of cost increases through the value chain, often with limited transparency and minimal cushioning for farmers and consumers alike.

The Role of the South African Human Rights Commission Inquiry

In this context, the ongoing national inquiry into South Africa’s food systems, spearheaded by the South African Human Rights Commission, is especially timely. As the investigation enters its second phase, it will scrutinize the roles of input suppliers, farmers, processors, lobbyists, and retailers amid a period of heightened global uncertainty. The recent fuel price hike exemplifies the interconnectedness of geopolitics, energy markets, agricultural inputs, and food security.

Critical Questions on Exposure and Market Dynamics

The inquiry raises pressing questions: How vulnerable is South Africa to external shocks given its dependence on imported agricultural inputs? How does the concentrated nature of fertiliser supply, food processing, and retail sectors influence the absorption or passing on of these shocks? Most importantly, who ultimately bears the financial burden when global crises unfold-corporations, farmers, or consumers?

Structural Challenges Demand Urgent Attention

While the inquiry’s findings remain forthcoming, one insight is clear: if the costs consistently fall on consumers and small-scale producers, the problem transcends external factors and points to deep-rooted structural weaknesses. The simultaneous fuel price surge and global fertiliser shortage highlight the fragility of a food system that is both import-dependent and dominated by a few powerful players.

Pathways to Resilience: Diversification and Food Sovereignty

This crisis underscores the urgent need to explore strategies such as diversifying import sources, boosting local production capacities, implementing effective market regulations, and advancing food sovereignty. Food security cannot be isolated from energy policies, trade dynamics, or market structures. The price of everyday essentials like bread, maize meal, and vegetables is shaped not only by global oil routes and climatic conditions but also by the distribution of power within the food value chain.

Conclusion: Addressing Embedded Vulnerabilities for Sustainable Food Security

From the fuel pump to the supermarket shelf, the journey of food is influenced by complex global and local factors. Without confronting the concentration and structural vulnerabilities entrenched in South Africa’s food system, the financial burden on households and farmers will continue to escalate, threatening the nation’s food security and economic stability.

• Ntuli is a commissioner of the South African Human Rights Commission